J.D. Power and GlobalData forecast November 2025 U.S. new-vehicle retail sales at 1,058,500 units — down 4.8% from November 2024 — with a total SAAR of 15.4 million, a decline of 1.2 million units year-over-year.
For collision-repair shops, this slowdown adds even more pressure to an already shrinking pool of repairable work.
The Key Volume Killers Right Now
- Aging fleet driving record total-loss rates
- 74% of Q1 2025 total-loss valuations were on vehicles 7+ years old (up from 70% in 2024)
- Nearly 1 in 4 appraisals now ends in a total loss
- Fleet turnover is grinding to a halt
- December 2025 lease returns expected to be 15% lower than 2024 and 50% lower than 2023
- Consumers are walking away from small claims
- Damage ≤$2,000 now represents only 25.5% of repairable appraisals (down from 41.5% in 2019)
- Rising deductibles mean more drivers pay out of pocket or live with the damage
- Shorter backlogs are a warning sign, not a victory
- Faster cycle times and shorter wait lists are largely the result of fewer repairable vehicles entering the system.
The Bottom Line
Fewer new vehicles → older fleet → skyrocketing total-loss frequency → disappearing small claims = far fewer cars on your lifts.
This isn’t a temporary dip; it’s the new reality. The shops that aggressively control costs, maximize tech productivity, and diversify revenue streams today will be the ones still standing tomorrow.
Source: “Slowing New-Vehicle Sales Add Pressure to an Already-Shrinking Repair Pool,” Autobody News Staff, November 2025 Read the full article here